Comparative analysis and model development for determining the susceptibility to eutrophication of Long Island Sound embayments

1. QAPP development. 2. Calculate N load estimates for a minimum of 50 embayments using a published model which relates land-use in the watershed to the total N load for the embayment. 3. Calculate estimates of the freshwater flushing time for a minimum of 50 embayments using two methods: (1) a modified tidal prism method and (2) a simplified method developed in embayments which relate estuarine length and surface area to freshwater flushing time. 4. Using the output from Objectives 1 & 2, a published model will be used to estimate the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentration in the embayments. This value will be used to quantify the error of the model outputs predicting N load. 5. Field-based evaluation of ten embayments in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) for susceptibility to hypoxia and primary producer community composition. 6. Apply field data to indices developed to identify the trophic status of estuaries. We will use two methods: one developed by the EPA and one developed by NOAA. 7. Develop a statistical model using multivariate analysis techniques to relate the calculated N load (#2), fresh water flushing time (#3), and estuarine trophic status (#6). Develop predictions as to which of the unsampled LIS embayments are most likely to experience symptoms of eutrophication. 8. Using the predictions of eutrophication risk for 50 embayments (#7), develop "report cards" for each embayment detailing potential environmental issues and the likeliest causes. These report cards will be presented to the LISS STAC, community groups and other groups who provided data, NY Sea Grant, CT Sea Grant, Citizen's Campaign for the Environment (CT and NY) and Save the Sound / CT Fund for the Environment.